“We might need to make 400 if we bat first,” Alex Carey joked during a press conference in Rawalpindi on Monday, just a day before Australia’s crucial Champions Trophy clash against South Africa.
He was kidding, but was he really?
South Africa’s 315/6 was enough to beat Afghanistan by 107 runs in Karachi on Friday. On Saturday, England posted 351/5 in Lahore, the highest total of the tournament until Australia chased it down with five wickets in hand and 15 balls to spare.
So, whatever happens on Tuesday in Rawalpindi, don’t expect a target below 300. These are two of the most powerful batting line-ups in the tournament, and their bowling attacks have been hit by injuries and unavailability.
Cue runs. Hundreds of them. Could we see a record-breaking aggregate? That’s a high bar 872 runs, the most ever in a men’s ODI. But it’s not impossible, given the conditions and the teams involved. After all, it was Australia and South Africa who set that record back in March 2006 at the Wanderers Australia smashed 434/4, only for South Africa to chase it down with 438/9, winning with a ball to spare. That was the first time a 400+ score had ever been made in an ODI. Since then, it has happened 27 times.
South Africa have posted 400 or more on eight occasions, Australia twice. India have done it seven times, England five, Sri Lanka and New Zealand twice each, and Zimbabwe once.
Australia have conceded 400 in three ODIs; South Africa, twice. It has happened four times to West Indies, thrice to Sri Lanka and the Netherlands, twice to India, Pakistan, and Ireland, and once each to New Zealand, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, the USA, and Bermuda.
Teams scoring 400+ have won 24 out of those 27 games. Besides that unforgettable day at the Wanderers in 2006, the exceptions were Sri Lanka’s 411/8 against India in Rajkot in December 2009 and New Zealand’s 401/6 against Pakistan during the 2023 World Cup in Bengaluru, where the DLS method adjusted the chase due to rain.
Carey might have been joking, but his words carried an undercurrent of truth. These two teams know what it takes to put up 400 and they’re both in contention for the semifinals.
That wasn’t a certainty when Australia arrived in Pakistan, missing key players and on a four-match losing streak. South Africa, too, had lost six consecutive ODIs, though their squad was weakened by injuries and franchise T20 commitments.
Meanwhile, England looked unstoppable, having won seven of their last eight white-ball games in India. Afghanistan, too, were in fine form, winning eight of their previous 10 completed ODIs, including two against South Africa in Sharjah last September. It seemed like they were heading for the semis.
But Friday’s match tore up that script, and Saturday’s results only made Tuesday’s showdown more significant. Once again, Australia and South Africa will meet in a high-stakes ICC event.
A win will all but guarantee a semifinal spot. A loss will make their last group match a must-win. Rain is a potential spoiler, but if the weather holds, don’t be surprised if 400 really does come into play.
Match Details
When: February 25, 14:00 Local, 11:00 SAT, 14:30 IST
Where: Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium
What to expect: A flat pitch. And rain there’s a 62% chance of showers in the afternoon, increasing to 71% in the evening.
Team News
Australia
Even without Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Marsh, and Marcus Stoinis, the Aussies crushed England. That makes it unlikely they’ll change the XI.
Probable XI: Matthew Short, Travis Head, Steve Smith (capt), Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Inglis (wk), Alex Carey, Glenn Maxwell, Ben Dwarshuis, Nathan Ellis, Adam Zampa, Spencer Johnson.
South Africa
Heinrich Klaasen’s elbow injury hasn’t healed yet, so he might miss another game.
Probable XI: Ryan Rickelton (wk), Tony de Zorzi, Temba Bavuma (capt), Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Wiaan Mulder, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi.
Did you know?
- Australia have lost four of their last five ODIs.
- South Africa have won just one of their last seven ODIs but have beaten Australia in four of their last five encounters.
- In ICC ODI and T20I tournaments, Australia have won six out of 10 matches against South Africa.
What they said:
Alex Carey on Australia’s bowling attack:
“It’s an inexperienced attack, there’s no hiding away from that. But we’ve got Adam Zampa, Glenn Maxwell’s smart bowling, and Steve Smith’s leadership. If we bat first, I back our guys to defend 300-plus. And we have depth in our bowling Nathan Ellis has tricks, Spencer Johnson is damaging up top, Ben Dwarshuis is effective, and Sean Abbott is ready. We’re confident our attack can do the job without the big three.”
Temba Bavuma on facing Australia:
“Any Australian team in an ICC event is a serious contender. Yes, they don’t have their main bowling attack, but they have enough firepower to be successful. Their batters might have to do more, and their bowling has some opportunities for us to exploit.”
