The Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes at Newbury is a horse race with a long history. It’s been around for over 100 years and has helped launch the careers of many top horses like Orwell, Mill Reef, Celtic Swing, and Frankel.
In recent years, though, it hasn’t been as important for spotting winners of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas. Frankel was the last horse to win both races back in 2011. The last Guineas winner to even run in the Greenham was Night Of Thunder in 2014.
Still, the race often features at least one very good horse, and this year’s race was no different.
The winner, Jonquil, stood out. This was only his third race, and he looked much better than he did last time at Doncaster, where he didn’t run well after getting nervous and starting slowly.
On his debut at Sandown, he had already shown he had talent, winning despite some problems during the race. At Newbury, he proved that early promise was real.
Rider Oisin Murphy kept him back at first, then moved up to follow Rashabar near the stands side, while another group of horses ran on the far side.
As the two groups came together, Murphy looked calm and confident, while other jockeys were already urging their horses on. When Murphy asked Jonquil to go, he responded quickly, speeding ahead and winning by about a length and a half, with Rashabar finishing second.
Could Jonquil improve the Greenham Stakes’ record in the 2000 Guineas? He might, if he runs in the race.
His trainer, Andrew Balding, helped Chaldean win the 2000 Guineas two years ago for Juddmonte. That horse also ran in the Greenham before winning, even though he lost his jockey at the start.
What’s exciting about Jonquil is that he seems very fast, even though he’s bred for slightly longer races. His mother is Jovial, a Dubawi mare from Frankel’s family, so running a mile should suit him well. He’s also well-balanced, which should help him handle the ups and downs of the Rowley Mile.
With no clear favorite in the 2000 Guineas this year, Jonquil’s current odds of 14/1 seem like good value.
He looks like the type of horse who could do well in the Guineas. He’s fit, improving, and has proven himself. The only uncertainty is that Juddmonte, his owners, have other strong horses too. So, he might end up running in the French Guineas instead.
Another Juddmonte horse, Cosmic Year, won well at Kempton and could also go to the Guineas. Then there’s Field Of Gold, trained by the Gosdens, who will run in the Craven Stakes next week.
The final decision might wait until after that race, but based on Jonquil’s win at Newbury, he seems the best of the Juddmonte horses for the 2000 Guineas. If he runs at Newmarket, he could do really well.
Rashabar showed he’s a strong three-year-old with his second-place finish, and he’s expected to improve more after this race.
Last year, he won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, then ran even better when finishing second in both the Prix Morny and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. His trainer, Brian Meehan, will be happy with how well he performed in his first run back.
Meehan believes Rashabar will improve by about 20% from this race, so it’s a good starting point for his Guineas hopes.
Whether he can beat Jonquil next time is uncertain, as Jonquil seems to have more speed. But Rashabar may do better over longer distances, since he’s bred for it—his mother is by Camelot. It’ll be interesting to see if Meehan aims him at the French Derby.
Among the other horses:
- Saracen, who finished third, ran fine but may prefer softer ground.
- Chancellor, in sixth, drifted left and looked inexperienced.
- Al Qudra, the favourite, came eighth and was very disappointing.
- Rogue Allegiance pulled too hard early and came in last. He showed promise on his debut at Newcastle and might do better as a sprinter over six furlongs if he settles down.