Afghanistan’s Asia Cup campaign has reached a do-or-die stage. To qualify for the Super Four, they must win against Sri Lanka at all costs, while Sri Lanka only need to avoid a massive defeat to progress.
Qualification Scenarios
The equations are tight. If Sri Lanka bat first and score 150, Afghanistan would need to chase it down in just 11.4 overs to qualify. On the other hand, if Afghanistan put 150 on the board, Sri Lanka must be restricted to 84 or fewer for Bangladesh to go through.
“𝑨𝒇𝒈𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏 𝒂𝒃𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒆𝒍𝒚 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒕𝒐 𝒘𝒊𝒏 𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒓𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒐 𝒎𝒂𝒌𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑺𝒖𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝑭𝒐𝒖𝒓, 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒍𝒆 𝑺𝒓𝒊 𝑳𝒂𝒏𝒌𝒂 𝒎𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒍𝒚 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒕𝒐 𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒊𝒅 𝒃𝒆𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒅 𝒂𝒏 𝒂𝒍𝒍-𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒂𝒔𝒉𝒊𝒏𝒈.”
For Bangladesh, the hopes rest on Sri Lanka doing enough to deny Afghanistan a miracle. If Sri Lanka lose, they must ensure it isn’t by a huge margin.
Teams With Strengths and Flaws
Sri Lanka showed vulnerability earlier in the tournament, nearly slipping against Hong Kong. Just three weeks ago, they were bowled out for 80 by Zimbabwe, exposing their batting fragility. Afghanistan, meanwhile, have beaten Sri Lanka in three of their eight T20I encounters, keeping hopes alive.
Both sides rely heavily on their bowling. Rashid Khan spearheads Afghanistan, while Wanindu Hasaranga leads Sri Lanka’s attack. Their batting, however, remains inconsistent and often shaky in the middle and lower order.
“𝑨𝒇𝒈𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏 𝒏𝒆𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒘𝒊𝒏; 𝑺𝒓𝒊 𝑳𝒂𝒏𝒌𝒂 𝒘𝒊𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒆 𝒋𝒖𝒔𝒕 𝒎𝒖𝒅𝒅𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒈𝒉.”
Key Players in Focus
- Rahmanullah Gurbaz – The Afghan opener has scored 248 runs at a strike rate of 172 against Sri Lanka in six T20Is. His experience in the Lanka Premier League gives him an edge against their bowlers.
- Dushmantha Chameera – Sri Lanka’s pace spearhead has been in excellent form, delivering yorkers and wide deliveries at the death with accuracy.
Conditions and Team News
Abu Dhabi’s pitches have been favorable for batting but still offer grip for spinners. Both teams are expected to retain the same XIs despite recent losses.
Afghanistan (probable): Saqidullah Ataq, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Ibrahim Zadran, Gulbadin Naib, Mohammad Nabi, Azmatullah Omarzai, Karim Janat, Rashid Khan (capt.), Noor Ahmad, AM Ghazanfar, Fazalhaq Farooqi.
Sri Lanka (probable): Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis (wk), Kamil Mishara, Kusal Perera, Charith Asalanka (capt.), Kamindu Mendis, Dasun Shanaka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dushmantha Chameera, Maheesh Theekshana, Nuwan Thushara.
Stats to Watch
- Gurbaz’s strike rate of 172.22 vs Sri Lanka is his best against any team.
- Chameera has taken 11 wickets in five games in 2025, maintaining a miserly 6.40 economy.
- Since 2020, Sri Lanka lead the head-to-head with four wins out of seven matches.
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